I took that poll and had some fun messing with their sample. I also reviewed the results , which said more about parties and zip codes than anything about HB2.
PPP has released a second poll. I have a lay out of all the questions at the bottom of this article. Here are a few tidbits first.
This new poll is very similar to the first one. In fact, the needle really didn’t move much either way from their April poll. HB 2 only lost one point of support from May to April.
There is little to no change in the demographics sample sizes. PPP’s May poll used a list based method, not random sample. The only major demographics flux was in age ranges.
The May PPP poll had a question that April didn’t have: Do you think that HB2 should be repealed, or do you think it should be kept in place?
Democrat affiliation was still the lion’s share of the responses. Democrat affiliation ticked up one point between the April and May surveys, making them the majority of respondents by 8 points.
PPP isn’t known for their balance, unlike less partisan polls using firms like National Research Inc. and SurveyUSA which have shown the majority of NC found the Charlotte ordinance unsafe and back HB 2.
PPP have been caught skewing their questions to liberals and ‘troll polling‘. In 2013, PPP was called out by the New Republic for flawed methodology, inconsistent data handling and then for deleting a question out of a poll all together.
PPP has the distinction of being called the biggest ‘herder’ in the polling industry. Herding, summarized, is adjusting your results to look like similar polls in the field. PPP isn’t herding with any other poll but their own in this case.
Civitas also repeated their poll as well and found that 56% of North Carolinians are in support HB 2. PPP says only 35% support it. That’s one helluva gap.
The questions are not identical, but the Civitas question and the first PPP question of support have the same intent, let’s compare:
Favor: Civitas 56% PPP 35%
Oppose: Civitas 34% PPP 44%
Didn’t know: Civitas: 8% PPP: 21%
Refused: Civitas: 1% PPP: Not one of 928 people refused? Field doesn’t exist.
Interestingly, Civitas’ poll was also heavy on the democrat side by 9 points and representing 42% of the sample. The Civitas poll had bigger percentages than the PPP poll of respondents residing in Raleigh and Charlotte. The sample size for Civitas was constant, whereas PPP’s had a 32 person variance.
I’ve created a comparison chart between the two PPP polls questions on HB2, as well as the demographic information. The only thing added to it was identifying the Area codes called. In terms of area codes called, both Asheville and Charlotte had two point increases.
Compare the PPP polls for yourself:
|Do you support or oppose House Bill 2?||Do you support or oppose House Bill 2?|
|Support 36%||Support 35%||-1.00|
|Oppose 45%||Oppose 44%||-1.00|
|Not sure 19%||Not sure 21%||2.00|
|Overall, do you think HB2 is helping or hurting North Carolina?||Overall, do you think HB2 is helping or hurting North Carolina?|
|HB2 is helping North Carolina 32%||HB2 is helping North Carolina 29%||3.00|
|HB2 is hurting North Carolina 53%||HB2 is hurting North Carolina 56%||3.00|
|Not sure 15%||Not sure 15%||0.00|
|Do you think House Bill 2 has had a positive or negative impact on North Carolina’s reputation nationally, or has it not made a difference?||Do you think House Bill 2 has had a positive or negative impact on North Carolina’s reputation nationally, or has it not made a difference?|
|Positive impact on reputation 22%||Positive impact on reputation 24%||-2.00|
|Negative impact on reputation 53%||Negative impact on reputation 53%||0.00|
|Has Not Made a Difference 18%||Has not made a difference 18%||0.00|
|Not Sure 7%||Not sure 6%||-1.00|
|Do you think House Bill 2 has had a positive or negative impact on the North Carolina economy, or has it not made a difference?||Do you think House Bill 2 has had a positive or negative impact on the North Carolina economy, or has it not made a difference?|
|Positive impact on economy 11%||Positive impact on economy 12%||1.00|
|Negative impact on economy 54%||Negative impact on economy 50%||-4.00|
|Has Not Made a Difference 29%||Has not made a difference 30%||-1.00|
|Not Sure 6%||Not sure 9%||3.00|
|Do you think House Bill 2 has made North Carolina safer, or not?||Do you think House Bill 2 has made North Carolina safer, or not?|
|HB2 has made North Carolina safer 37%||HB2 has made North Carolina safer 36%||-1.00|
|HB2 has not made North Carolina safer 44%||HB2 has not made North Carolina safer 47%||3.00|
|Not sure 19%||Not sure 17%||-2.00|
|QUESTION NOT ASKED IN APRIL||Do you think that HB2 should be repealed, or do you think it should be kept in place?|
|HB2 should be repealed 50%||0.00|
|HB2 should be kept in place 38%||0.00|
|Not sure 12%||0.00|
|If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.||If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.|
|Democrat 40%||Democrat 41%||1.00|
|Republican 33%||Republican 33%||0.00|
|% Independent / Other 27%||% Independent / Other 26%||-1.00|
|If you are white, press 1. If African American, press 2. If other, press 3.||If you are white, press 1. If African American, press 2. If other, press 3.|
|White 74%||White 73%||-1.00|
|African American 21%||African American 21%||0.00|
|Other 5%||Other 6%||1.00|
|Area Code||Area Code|
|252 11% (Greenville)||252 10% (Greenville)||-1.00|
|336 25% (Greensboro)||336 23% (Greensboro)||-2.00|
|704 18% (Charlotte)||704 20% (Charlotte)||2.00|
|828 11% (Asheville)||828 13% (Asheville)||2.00|
|910 16% (Fayetteville)||910 16% (Fayetteville)||0.00|
|919 19% (Raleigh)||919 18% (Raleigh)||-1.00|
|If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older than 65, press 4.||If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older than 65, press 4.|
|18 to 29 13%||18 to 29 12%||-1.00|
|30 to 45 28%||30 to 45 26%||2.00|
|46 to 65 39%||46 to 65 42%||3.00|
|Older than 65 20%||Older than 65 20%||0.00|