Jeb! drops out after doing his damage to Cruz, Rubio

Well most folks are talking about Jeb! dropping out last night. It was good that he did, it was clearly time given his poor showings in Iowa, New Hampshire and now, South Carolina.

I’m more interested in the damage Jeb! did though. Actually,  not just Jeb! bit also Kasich and Carson. Let’s do some math. (Hypothetical math)

SC Primary Final Numbers
1. Donald Trump: 238,067 (32%)
2. Marco Rubio: 164,691 (22.5%)
3. Ted Cruz: 163,732 (22.3%)
4. Jeb Bush: 57,472 (7.8%)
5. John Kasich: 55,920 (7.6%)
6. Ben Carson: 52,958 (7.2%)

If you add Jeb!, Kasich and Carson’s votes together it comes out to 166,350.  For the sake of argument, let’s say that if those three had not been in the race that their voters would have gone to either Rubio or Cruz.

For the sake of simplicity and just as an exercise, let’s divide that 166,350 in half which is 83,175.

Now let’s add that 83,175 to our 2nd and third place finishers, which were actually only separated by 959 votes or .2%.  (I believe that both Rubio and Cruz surpassed the turnout McCain had, by the way.)

Rubio: 164,691 + 83,175 = 247,866
Cruz: 163,732 _ 83,175 = 246,907

Trump’s total was 238,067.

With Jeb!, Kasich and Carson’s vote, they both beat Trump.  When I said “damage” earlier on, this is what I meant. The leeching of votes by these three quite possibly  hamstrung the top runners.

Carson and Kasich need to get out of the way.
Rubio and Cruz need to stop attacking each other and hit Trump and Hillary.

Whether or not Rubio can ally with Cruz or not and whether or not Cruz can get past Rubio’s Alinsky style campaigning against Cruz remains to be seen. As much as he tried to muddy the waters, Rubio’s still got an Amnesty/Gang of 8 problem, which will fail to motivate the base much in the same way we say lack of motivation in 2012.

If the two of them are serious, they need to work together.  Cruz is my first choice, but I’d certainly take Rubio before Trump.


About A.P. Dillon

A.P. Dillon is a freelance journalist and is currently writing at The North State Journal. She resides in the Triangle area of North Carolina. Find her on Twitter: @APDillon_
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6 Responses to Jeb! drops out after doing his damage to Cruz, Rubio

  1. A.P. Dillon says:

    Both Cruz and Rubio are natural born citizens.

    I don’t tolerate birther crap well, FYI.


  2. brackenkaren says:

    The one fault with your math is it would be statistically impossible for all of the votes for Bush, Kasich and Carson to go only to Cruz and Rubio. I say the majority of Carson votes (the only other real non establishment guy) would probably have gone to Trump. Hypotheticals are not worth the time or effort. We will have to see how it flushes out because Kasich and Carson will be gone after super Tuesday. Personally I am hoping if Trump pulls it off he selects Carson for his VP.


  3. Cyclops618 says:

    Rubio pulled his support from the Gang of Eight when he determined that the House was not going to make major changes to the Senate bill. You can take cheap shots at Rubio all you want, but his withdrawal of support actually stopped Boehner from letting the House pass the Senate bill with Democrat votes. After Rubio withdrew support, Boehner could no longer claim the bill had conservative support and he never allowed it an up or down vote on the floor of the House.

    Rubio is the only candidate who can unite all factions of the GOP. If Trump or Cruz is the GOP nominee, Hillary will be our next President.


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