Tag Archives: September Jobs Report

About that September Jobs Report…

Business Insider has a story up that one state’s numbers are what threw the report off last month. It links to another story explaining that one large state (likely California) did not report all of its numbers in a timely manner. I think this is part of it, but there might be another factor.

I’ve been thinking about this miraculous September jobs report, as has my husband. it was a conversation last night with Mr. Liberty that prompted me to look up a few things. This is our own speculation mind you, but the long & short of it is: stimulus funds expired.

(CNSNews.com) – There was good news for American workers in August—if government was their employer.

The unemployment rate for government wage and salaries workers dropped from 5.7 percent in July to 5.1 percent in August. At the same time, the number of government wage and salary workers counted as unemployed dropped by 123,000 people from 1,182,000 in July to 1,059,000 in August.

The overall national unemployment rate was 8.1 percent in August.

A year ago, in August 2011, there were 1,271,000 unemployed government wage and salary workers. So, the number of unemployed government workers has dropped by 212,000 since then.

The unemployment numbers for government workers published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are not seasonally adjusted.

*snip*

The government jobs are not seasonally adjusted. Got it.
Further down:

The 5.1 percent unemployment rate for government workers was the lowest unemployment rate for any of 17 different categories and subcategories of industries for which employment is tracked and published on a month-to-month basis by the Department of Labor. These include nonagricultural private wage and salary workers; mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction workers; construction workers; manufacturing workers; durable goods manufacturing workers; nondurable goods manufacturing workers; wholesale and retail trade workers; transportation and utilities workers; information workers; financial activities workers; professional and business services workers; education and health services workers; leisure and hospitality workers; workers in other services; agricultural and related private wage and salary workers; and self-employed, unincorporated and unpaid family workers.

This should not be surprising if one looks at the ‘‘American Recovery and Reinvestment
Act of 2009’’. In every single section it states that the funds expire September 30th, 2012.

“Provided further, That funds set aside in the previous proviso shall remain available until September 30, 2012”

In government speak, that’s ‘use it or lose it’. So, what do states do when they have funds they have to spend? Use up the money any way they can. Hiring a lot of seasonal or temporary workers is one way. Combine the need to use these funds up with a large state like California being behind in some of its reporting and voila, you might get the big drop we saw in September.

Note: Recovery.gov has not yet updated with the final report numbers for September, but they had the total number of jobs updated as of 9/19/12. That number was unchanged from the Q2 April-June 30 report at 152,295. Continue reading

Posted in Economy, Government, The Articles | Tagged , | 3 Comments

September Jobs Report Miracle

Here is the September report: Employment Situation Summary Friday, October 5, 2012

The next thing we know the BLS is going to turn the water in the reflecting pool on the national mall to wine. The public has watched these numbers be revised up, revised down, revised sideways…and without fail, we go back and look at the real number – U6.

Reminder:

5.6%: Unemployment Obama White predicted for September 2012 if Congress passed stimulus

— James Pethokoukis (@JimPethokoukis) October 5, 2012

Look, I’m no economist but how you get .3% drop out of 114k jobs is curious to me. We have the biggest drop in 29 years one month before the election. Not impossible but wow, that looks funky. By that math, wouldn’t we need to add somewhere just over 2 million jobs to have 0%? What a miracle just a month out from the election. I’m not donning a tin-foil hat quite yet:

What this .03% drop means (per Ed Morrissey) is that the number of unemployed people dropped by 456,000 when only 114k jobs were created–well below the monthly average, and below population growth. Where did 342k people go to lower the number so dramatically just 31 days before a presidential election? Did they retire, leave the planet, die of old age in the unemployment office?

Moreover, just 30 days before the election, 342K people dropped off the unemployment rolls and lowered the unemployment rate to below 8%–a benchmark number vitally important to President Obama who promised his stimulus would ensure we wouldn’t hit 8%.

Finally, this is the second hinky looking report/revision from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in as many months. Just days ago, 400,000 jobs were “discovered”–almost the exact number Obama needed to have a record of creating more jobs on his watch than were lost. – Breitbart

(Related: The Books Weren’t Cooked. Obama’s Recovery Is Just Crap. Also, Instapundit: INVESTOR’S BUSINESS DAILY: Even If Obama Did Cook The Jobs Numbers, They Still Stink.)

Right and Left alike eyed these numbers skeptically, yet Right leaning pundits are the ones being called “Jobs Birthers”. The Left, however, seemed far more worried about Romney’s handkerchief yesterday. What a stark difference between Right and Left – Conservatives were worried about inconsistencies in our jobs data while the Liberals were obsessed with a cheating hanky. How embarrassing.

Anyway, like I said I am no economist, so here are my link bombs on the topic. They were of use to me and hopefully will be to you:

Zero Hedge:

NFP Prints 114K, On Top Of Expectations Of 115K; Unemployment Rate Tumbles To 7.8% On Expectations Of 8.2%
Reason For Today’s Unemployment Rate Plunge: Part-Time Jobs For Economic Reasons Surge Most Since QE1 Announcement
Goldman’s NFP Postmortem
The Strangest Number In Today’s Jobs Number

Pethokoukis:

The sickly, stagnant September jobs report
Economist: Unemployment drop ‘implausible … a statistical quirk’

Hot Air:

Jobs report: 114K jobs added, jobless rate 7.8%; Update: CNBC confused by “contradictory” numbers; Update: Bloomberg explains?

Interesting:

The Plight of Young, Black Men Is Worse Than You Think
Unemployment Rate Plummets to 4.3%–For Government Workers Continue reading

Posted in Economy | Tagged , , | 1 Comment